By The Citizen Reporters
Dar es Salaam. Tanzania’s population stands at about 45 million, an increase from the 34.4 million recorded in 2002.This was the highlight of the announcement by President Jakaya Kikwete in Dar es Salaam yesterday, of results of the Population and Housing Census 2012.
The president told the audience at a colourful ceremony at Mnazi Mmoja Grounds – plus people who kept track of the proceedings via the electronic media – that 44,929,002 was the specific nation-wide population.
The results are preliminary.
It emerged from the president’s briefing, that, the population’s average annual growth rate had declined to 2.6 per cent between 2002 and 2012, compared to 2.9 per cent between 1988 and 2002.
Tanzania’s population growth is the second lowest in the East African region after that of Burundi of 2.3 per cent, according to a World Bank report. Uganda has the highest growth rate of 3.2 per cent, followed by Rwanda at 2.96 per cent and Kenya 2.7 per cent.
Analysts told The Citizen yesterday that the declining growth rate was a sign that the economic development status of the country was improving with key productive segments of the population, especially that of women, “becoming more and more economically engaged.”
“Decreased population growth rate could point to the fact that women are getting more educate, post-primary level,” remarked seasoned economist Professor Ibrahim Lipumba, who is also national chairman of the Civic United Front.
He noted that evidence had shown that more and more women are engaged in productive sectors both in rural and urban areas.
“When women access more economic and education opportunities in any country, the rate of population growth slows down,” Prof Lipumba said. National Census Commissioner, Ms Amina Mrisho, for her part told the The Citizen yesterday that the decrease in population growth rate was made possible by an improvement of health services.
“In recent years the issue of awareness on family planning has increased, and the use of family planning methods has also increased,” she said, noting that details on the real factors of the decrease in the population growth rate will be released later.
Economic growth does not support population growth rate
Analysts cautioned, however, that despite a decrease, the current rate of economic growth of about 6.5 per cent does not support a population growth rate of 2.6 per cent.
Even President Kikwete said if the same population growth rate continues, it will pose a burden to social services, the infrastructure and the general wellbeing of the society.
“With 50 million people, it will be very difficult for the government to cater for the needs of its people because there will be resource scarcity,” said Mr Kikwete.
He called on wananchi and authorities to devise strategies for improving the country’s economy so that it could sustain the population. To that end, Mr Kikwete urged wananchi to observe family planning methods so as to limit the rate of population growth. He also called for public and private institutions to use the 2012 census results when planning and implementing various economic development projects.
“The population growth rate of 2.6 per cent must be supported by an economic growth rate of eight per cent. Currently the economy grows at between six and seven. This is not enough,” said Dr Honest Ngowi, an economist from Mzumbe University. The census results indicated that there has been an increase of 10.5 million people over the past ten years, from 34.4 million in 2002 to 44.9 million in 2012.
This is the fifth population survey to be conducted since independence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS), the first census was conducted in 1967 and it showed Tanzania had a population of 12.3 million.
By the 1978 census, that number had jumped by 47 per cent to around 18 million people. In 1988, the country reached a new milestone; 23 million people and counting. In the latest census that number had ballooned by a remarkable 11 million people bringing the total population of Tanzania to around 34 million in 2002.
Population increase means a large market for businesses
Dr Omari Mbura from the University of Dar es Salaam Business School said the increase in population is good news for businesses because the market for goods and services also expands.
“I’m of the view that the increasing population is good, we only need to find the best ways on how we can utilise them productively,” said Dr Mbura. He said currently it is important that the government and private sector play an important role in fostering the level of economic development and economic growth. He added that if the increasing population remains idle, there is a danger that per capita income will drop.
Much to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expectations, the census results announced yesterday lived up to the agency’s earlier projections of 45 million.
A day before survey takers started going from house to house taking count of family members who had spent the night in a certain house, in August last year, the bureau of statistics had projected the country’s population count to reach 45 million from that of 2002 which saw the number of Tanzanians getting to 34.2million.
Analysts urged the government to improve the infrastructure and social services because the current facilities cannot support the bigger population.
“Certainly, measures need to be taken, both in quality and quantity, to improve the transport system,” said Ali Mkunza, head of Consultancy and Production Bureau at the National Institute of Transport (NIT). “The railway system has to be developed, as well as the Tanzanian airports and roads.”
Other stakeholders said the provision of water and electricity were currently not good due to many factors, including the low performance of the utility companies.
Director of policy and research for Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) Mr Hussein Kamote, stressed that the government should spread basic services to as many people as possible.
He said: “The number of people is up while the numbers of those accessing water and electricity are still low.” Mr Kamote noted that the exploration of gas in Mtwara might be a catalyst for widening the network of water and power supply.
However, others said the increase in the population cannot affect health services as the figure revealed yesterday had been estimated even before.
Speaking with The Citizen over the phone, the Executive Director of Sikika, a Non-Governmental Organization that deals with the national budget and expenditure in the health sector, Mr Irenei Kiria, said the problem was mismanagement and misuse of health facilities.
“Since the available figure is the one that was estimated by the government before, the problem is not population growth but misuse of available resources as we believe that it has already organized how it will deal with the situation in every sector; what is needed is the implementation of those prior-organized plans,” said Mr Kiria.
In his view, Dr Francis Frederick of the Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) said that, since the available figure was that expected by the government, it should expand its budget a little bit, to facilitate deployment of more health personnel to rural areas that have physical structures but aren’t functioning due to staff shortage.
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